[5NL] FD, picking up OESD on T against aggro c/r AI

This happened quite early in the session but as PT doesn't give you the stats at the time of the hand, rather the stats when you finished playing villain, that is what I have to give you.

69/13/13 through 45 hands. Limped 65% of the time, calling a raise 6/6 times afterwards. He also liked to donk flops, 44% of the time, 4/9.

I had a couple of notes on villain. I had seen him call an UTG raise, in SB, with K2o. He then donk shoved on the flop with TP.

I had also seen him be quite aggressive with TPNK. PSB on F & T, with A2o on A high board. He bet it again on the river, this was only around 65% of pot though.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $5.21
SB: $12.84
BB: $5.16
UTG: $5.05
MP: $8.59
CO: $5.56

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has T Q

fold, MP calls $0.05, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, MP calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.47, 2 players) K 6 8
MP bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.87, 2 players) J
MP checks, Hero bets $0.60, MP raises to $8.19 and is all-in, Hero ???

OK I have assigned villain a range and calculated equity etc, but would just like other people's opinions/views/thoughts on the hand before I post my own.

As played i'm folding. This guy seems like a complete maniac and you will have plenty of opportunities to win a bunch of $ from him. No need to get it in with the worst of it with 1 card to come.

What do you think your overall strategy should be vs this guy?

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

As played i'm folding. This guy seems like a complete maniac and you will have plenty of opportunities to win a bunch of $ from him. No need to get it in with the worst of it with 1 card to come.

What do you think your overall strategy should be vs this guy?

Don't bluff, 3bet a tonne for value, probably bet TPTK+ for value as well?

I'd say that it's a somewhat close fold. I'd still make the turn bet, though I couldn't blame someone for wanting to check.

Yeah pretty much value bet the crap out of him, also bet your strong draws. So you should divide your total pre flop isolation range up to maximally exploit him on the flop. I.e decide what hands your betting when checked to and what hands your checking back.

Then decide what hands your raising when bet into, what hands your calling and what hands your folding.

So for example when he donks into you on the flop you want to be raising a very strong range vs him because he's so spewy and will stack off light. Overpairs sets 2pairs TPTK etc.

Then your calling range could consist mainly of a mixture of draws since your going to win a lot of money off this villain when you hit.

Then folding all your weakest holdings on the flop.

Just think about how you want to play your range vs different players in order to make money from them, like if their never folding you want to be betting a strong range and if their always folding you want to be betting a weak range etc.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

Yeah pretty much value bet the crap out of him, also bet your strong draws. So you should divide your total pre flop isolation range up to maximally exploit him on the flop. I.e decide what hands your betting when checked to and what hands your checking back.

Then decide what hands your raising when bet into, what hands your calling and what hands your folding.

So for example when he donks into you on the flop you want to be raising a very strong range vs him because he's so spewy and will stack off light. Overpairs sets 2pairs TPTK etc.

Then your calling range could consist mainly of a mixture of draws since your going to win a lot of money off this villain when you hit.

Then folding all your weakest holdings on the flop.

Just think about how you want to play your range vs different players in order to make money from them, like if their never folding you want to be betting a strong range and if their always folding you want to be betting a weak range etc.

Pretty much what I thought and you worded it much better than I would have. Great post.

@Spoon & 72 - What range are we assigning villain on flop & turn?

I'd be assigning villain a weak range on the flop since he's shown a tendency to donk out before i think he has a bunch of 1 pair hands and the occasional set or 2pair.

Then when he checks the turn i think he has a very weak range a tonne of 6x 8x because we seen him go bonkers with TPNK before i'd assume he'd be trying to build a pot with top pair or better. So i defo would have bet the turn just because we have loads of equity and can build a pot for when we hit. When he check-jams though he i'd assign him a range of top pair or better.

Even though we have loads of equity i don't think we want to play for stacks in marginal situations vs this guy when he's playing so bad post flop, we will have plenty of opportunities to get it in when we have this guy crushed, when he decides to donk shove TPNK for example.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Pretty much what I thought and you worded it much better than I would have. Great post.

@Spoon & 72 - What range are we assigning villain on flop & turn?

We need something like 40 percent equity to call. We have about 45 percent equity against A2 and about 34 percent equity against K2. Our equity against his range on the turn is probably in the range of 35-40 percent.

I think I prefer to check behind on the turn (not saying it is horrible to bet, but I don't think this villain folds often enough).

As played, sadly, you have to fold.

Originally Posted by daviddem

I think I prefer to check behind on the turn (not saying it is horrible to bet, but I don't think this villain folds often enough).

As played, sadly, you have to fold.

He doesn't really have to fold that often, and we don't normally expect to face a raise. Combine that with having position the times he calls and we get to the river, and I think that it's +EV in a vacuum.

Agree we may not need that many folds, but his 13 Agg factor combined with his 69% vpip is, shall we say, worrying (unless he is the kind who minbets every time he has a chance).

edit: OP's homework: calculate how often villain has to fold for Hero's turn bet to be +EV, assuming Hero always wins the hand when he hits the straight or flush OTR and always looses otherwise. Assume no further river bet on either side for simplicity and conservatism.

His aggression factor isn't all that relevant considering the sample size. Aggression factor is a stupid statistic anyway, but I'll save you the wall of text. :P

Edit: I don't see his AF listed anywhere in this thread.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Agree we may not need that many folds, but his 13 Agg factor combined with his 69% vpip is, shall we say, worrying (unless he is the kind who minbets every time he has a chance).

edit: OP's homework: calculate how often villain has to fold for Hero's turn bet to be +EV, assuming Hero always wins the hand when he hits the straight or flush OTR and always looses otherwise. Assume no further river bet on either side for simplicity and conservatism.

I have no idea how to do that.

This is what I came up with for the hand. Time for the slaughtering to begin haha;


Flop - A9s-A2s (Diamonds), 66-99, Kx, T9s, 97s, 75s, 54s, T9o, 97o, 75o, 54o

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

182,160 games 0.000 secs 36,432,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 6d 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.030% 49.85% 00.18% 90814 320.50 { QdTd }
Hand 1: 49.970% 49.79% 00.18% 90705 320.50 { 99-66, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KTs-K2s, T9s, 97s, 75s, 54s, KTo-K2o, T9o, 97o, 75o, 54o }

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Turn - KK+,JJ,88,66,AKs,KJs,AKo,KJo

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,716 games 0.001 secs 1,716,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 6d 8h Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.769% 30.77% 00.00% 528 0.00 { QdTd }
Hand 1: 69.231% 69.23% 00.00% 1188 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 88, 66, AKs, KJs, AKo, KJo }

I have added in a few hands that he could have possibly slow played and taken out anything below TP.

This is by far the weakest part of my game, please feel free to tear apart my ranges assigned to villain.

OK you can assume that this is his continuing range to your turn bet: KK+, JJ, 88, 66, AKs, KJs, AKo, KJ. For simplicity assume he never c/r any of this, but just calls. You already calculated your equity E against this range. You know the pot size P and the bet size B. You are trying to find which folding frequency F you need for the EV of all the outcomes to be greater than 0.

Refer to part #13 of http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ad-180192.html

Pretty much all you have to do is plug in all the numbers in that equation: set EV=0, plug in all the other numbers and find F.

Originally Posted by daviddem

OK you can assume that this is his continuing range to your turn bet: KK+, JJ, 88, 66, AKs, KJs, AKo, KJ. For simplicity assume he never c/r any of this, but just calls. You already calculated your equity E against this range. You know the pot size P and the bet size B. You are trying to find which folding frequency F you need for the EV of all the outcomes to be greater than 0.

Refer to part #13 of http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ad-180192.html

Pretty much all you have to do is plug in all the numbers in that equation: set EV=0, plug in all the other numbers and find F.

I'm all for helping people learn how to model poker situations so that they can figure things out on their own.

However, I'm of the opinion that the link above won't really get across the point in this particular hand because we are in position with an opportunity to check behind to see a free card. What I mean is that we would really like to know when the EV of betting is better than the EV of checking instead of just knowing when the EV of betting is positive.

Also, ignoring the Villain's chance to raise us affects our EV quite a bit. Perhaps unrelated, but this is one of the reasons why all-in semi-bluffs are so powerful.

To help with the analysis of this hand, I added a part 20 to the thread you linked to above titled "Non-allin Semi-bluff, In Position on the Turn." I also included a simple spreadsheet to make it easier to check different scenarios.

Here are four sample values for the OP's hand with a constant 10 percent chance of Villain raising based on the assumptions posted in part 20 of the link above.

-$0.14 (calls 60%, folds 30%)
-$0.06 (calls 50%, folds 40%)
+$0.02 (calls 40%, folds 50%)
+$0.10 (calls 30%, folds 60%)

I hope someone finds this useful.

Nice one Spoon. Looks like quite a lot of folding is necessary to make it more profitable than checking then.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Nice one Spoon. Looks like quite a lot of folding is necessary to make it more profitable than checking then.

Folding 50% isn't what I'd call "quite a lot" his line + his tendencies indicate that his range is going to be fairly weak.

I think 50% is still a lot unless he donks the flop 50% of the time with complete air. This kind of player seems unlikely to fold top/2nd/3rd pair or a draw imo.

Originally Posted by daviddem

I think 50% is still a lot unless he donks the flop 50% of the time with complete air. This kind of player seems unlikely to fold top/2nd/3rd pair or a draw imo.

As much as I like modeling hands and the EV of different options, the problem with taking the above analysis at face value is that it assumes that we always lose if we get called and don't hit the draw. That's hardly the case. These are the types of things you have to account for when using models like this.

Villain limp/calls a lot pre-flop, leads a lot of flops, and is very aggressive with top pair and up with multiple PSB's with TPNK on a previous hand. In this hand the guy limp/called pre-flop and lead the flop, but he checked the turn. This takes makes strong hands (TP+) fairly unlikely considering his tendencies.

We don't really care if he calls with 2nd pair or 3rd pair, which we have about 40% and 48% against, respectively. He has enough reverse implied odds on the river (ie: he improves to two pair, we improve to a straight) for our bets to be about break even on average against these hands.

We don't really care too much about Villain calling with draws because we beat most of those too. If we give Villain a somewhat pessimistic set of draws including all of the possible ace-high flush draws along with JT, J9, T9, T8, 98, 97 and 87 (all of diamonds), and then we give him QT and T9 for strong open-ended straight draws (even though there are a couple of other worse open-ended straight draws he could have that we're not including here), then we still have slightly more than 60 percent equity against his draws.

Opps. Funny how terrible players sometimes play a hand really well.

This comes down to if I feel like gambling for that many big blinds or not. Like stove says, it's really close and depends on how wide his range could be here.

If I've seen him go crazy over-betting 1 pair hands on drawy boards, I'm more inclined to gamble. If he just loves to blow weaker hands out of the pot with the top of his range, than I'm less inclined to gamble with him.